 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           3
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           6, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL3       0.7844200D+00  0.1673116D+01  0.6196800D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL3       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.4617D+03  0.4881D+04 -0.5477D+06 -0.3819D+07

REVE         0.2166D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1057D+02 -0.1186D+04 -0.8271D+04

LANGFR       0.2049D-03  0.9459D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.1122D+03 -0.7824D+03

UTIL3       -0.1826D-05 -0.8430D-03 -0.8912D-02  0.1000D+01  0.6973D+01

CONSTANT    -0.2619D-06 -0.1209D-03 -0.1278D-02  0.1434D+00  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1510441D+01  0.1840577D+00      8.2063417  0.9458133D-10  0.4210463D+00      1.5104405
                                                                              0.3999948D+00      1.5104405

REVE          X1  0.5606782D+01  0.2310048D+01      2.4271279 -0.1543399D-09  0.1943964D+03      5.6067815
                                                                              0.1754047D+00      5.6067815

LANGFR        X2  0.1020077D+01  0.1864350D+00      5.4714891 -0.1966309D-09  0.2055076D+04      1.0200769
                                                                              0.2505650D-01      1.0200769

UTIL3         X3 -0.2612778D+01  0.2987552D+00     -8.7455482 -0.4098704D-10 -0.2305876D+06     -2.6127783
                                                                             -0.2865388D+00     -2.6127783

CONSTANT      X0 -0.1088920D+02  0.3268056D+01     -3.3320107 -0.1068611D-09 -0.1607886D+07    -10.8891987
                                                                             -0.1467404D+01    -10.8891987

VAR(W)            0.1276775D+01  0.1648309D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.2031189D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6327
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6199

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.4562
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.4373

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1347578D+00

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.1136965D-11
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1276775D+01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.2214692D+01   Upper Bound =  0.2214692D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2031188551D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    12  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2608054976D+03  0.48637D+00  0.54279D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.98159D-01  0.17898D+00  0.18352D-02 -0.14600D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    19  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2613486204D+03  0.50351D+00  0.54999D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.85682D-01  0.18593D+00  0.98278D-03 -0.14910D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    23  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2644854817D+03  0.55872D+00  0.49144D+00  0.45957D+01  0.45954D+01 -0.69187D-01  0.46296D+00 -0.12571D-01 -0.32514D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    27  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2684129552D+03  0.70527D+00  0.33433D+00  0.45979D+01  0.45960D+01 -0.41515D-01  0.41469D+00 -0.55644D-02 -0.88428D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    30  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2685547424D+03  0.68812D+00  0.34851D+00  0.45984D+01  0.45962D+01 -0.23601D-01  0.41289D+00 -0.85767D-02 -0.91563D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    34  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2688972735D+03  0.69695D+00  0.34611D+00  0.46256D+01  0.46118D+01 -0.27970D-01  0.36558D+00 -0.29046D+00 -0.95371D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    37  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2695705801D+03  0.75041D+00  0.31488D+00  0.47429D+01  0.46793D+01 -0.24797D-01  0.27914D+00 -0.61653D-01 -0.92247D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    40  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2699628453D+03  0.78339D+00  0.31232D+00  0.49285D+01  0.47836D+01 -0.31442D-01  0.30278D+00 -0.62399D-01 -0.71974D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    42  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2700648689D+03  0.81657D+00  0.28857D+00  0.50394D+01  0.48511D+01 -0.28655D-01  0.31558D+00 -0.49852D-01 -0.64576D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    45  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2701598034D+03  0.83765D+00  0.27991D+00  0.53376D+01  0.50456D+01 -0.30391D-01  0.29717D+00 -0.19560D-01 -0.23745D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    48  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2702275954D+03  0.81713D+00  0.28982D+00  0.55477D+01  0.52003D+01 -0.29282D-01  0.29232D+00 -0.10692D+00  0.41615D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    50  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2702410900D+03  0.80791D+00  0.29352D+00  0.55982D+01  0.52435D+01 -0.27884D-01  0.29774D+00 -0.73359D-01  0.66094D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    52  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2702459845D+03  0.81177D+00  0.29168D+00  0.57775D+01  0.53792D+01 -0.27804D-01  0.30078D+00 -0.63774D-01  0.14303D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    56  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2702726000D+03  0.80464D+00  0.29605D+00  0.68037D+01  0.62086D+01 -0.23759D-01  0.29688D+00 -0.81978D-01  0.10536D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    59  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2702939783D+03  0.80908D+00  0.29289D+00  0.76154D+01  0.68736D+01 -0.29811D-01  0.29776D+00 -0.76484D-01  0.20251D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    62  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703002169D+03  0.81218D+00  0.29173D+00  0.86216D+01  0.76889D+01 -0.27449D-01  0.30015D+00 -0.63815D-01  0.16313D-02


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    65  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703034317D+03  0.80849D+00  0.29336D+00  0.96129D+01  0.84937D+01 -0.28565D-01  0.29775D+00 -0.76532D-01  0.35884D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    68  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703046857D+03  0.81091D+00  0.29226D+00  0.10799D+02  0.94583D+01 -0.28167D-01  0.29927D+00 -0.69110D-01  0.13396D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    70  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703051357D+03  0.80927D+00  0.29302D+00  0.11775D+02  0.10251D+02 -0.28336D-01  0.29824D+00 -0.73628D-01  0.28911D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    73  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703053309D+03  0.81027D+00  0.29256D+00  0.13057D+02  0.11293D+02 -0.28273D-01  0.29891D+00 -0.71259D-01  0.18866D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    75  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703053948D+03  0.80965D+00  0.29283D+00  0.13998D+02  0.12058D+02 -0.28296D-01  0.29844D+00 -0.72491D-01  0.25627D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    77  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054237D+03  0.80997D+00  0.29270D+00  0.15367D+02  0.13171D+02 -0.28293D-01  0.29878D+00 -0.72050D-01  0.21375D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    79  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054325D+03  0.80983D+00  0.29275D+00  0.16132D+02  0.13792D+02 -0.28290D-01  0.29852D+00 -0.72119D-01  0.23985D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    82  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054371D+03  0.80981D+00  0.29278D+00  0.17595D+02  0.14982D+02 -0.28294D-01  0.29870D+00 -0.72296D-01  0.22939D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    84  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054385D+03  0.80988D+00  0.29273D+00  0.18385D+02  0.15624D+02 -0.28291D-01  0.29858D+00 -0.72086D-01  0.23254D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    86  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054392D+03  0.80980D+00  0.29278D+00  0.19818D+02  0.16789D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29862D+00 -0.72222D-01  0.23510D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    88  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054394D+03  0.80986D+00  0.29274D+00  0.20468D+02  0.17317D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72142D-01  0.23193D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    91  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054396D+03  0.80983D+00  0.29276D+00  0.22393D+02  0.18882D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72163D-01  0.23398D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    93  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054396D+03  0.80985D+00  0.29275D+00  0.22983D+02  0.19362D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72157D-01  0.23253D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    94  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054396D+03  0.80985D+00  0.29275D+00  0.23740D+02  0.19977D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72155D-01  0.23275D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    95  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2703054396D+03  0.80984D+00  0.29275D+00  0.26038D+02  0.21845D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72158D-01  0.23306D-01



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2703054396D+03  0.80984D+00  0.29275D+00  0.26038D+02  0.21845D+02 -0.28292D-01  0.29861D+00 -0.72158D-01  0.23306D-01



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2703054396D+03 for entry   95 - - x(i) follows
  0.80984E+00  0.29275E+00  0.26038E+02  0.21845E+02 -0.28292E-01  0.29861E+00 -0.72158E-01  0.23306E-01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   95 nst=   31


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL3       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1214D+03  0.2799D+04  0.7082D+05 -0.1006D+06

REVE         0.8240D-02  0.1000D+01  0.2307D+02  0.5835D+03 -0.8289D+03

LANGFR       0.3572D-03  0.4335D-01  0.1000D+01  0.2530D+02 -0.3594D+02

UTIL3        0.1412D-04  0.1714D-02  0.3953D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.1421D+01

CONSTANT    -0.9940D-05 -0.1206D-02 -0.2783D-01 -0.7039D+00  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.2017975D-01  0.3450350D-01      0.5848611                -0.6579113D-08  0.4033131D+00      1.4468252
                                 0.1523647D-02     13.2443709                                0.3033771D+00      1.3353845

REVE          X1  0.8313184D-01  0.1410942D+00      0.5891940                -0.1623200D-08  0.4894738D+02      1.4117404
                                 0.9986565D-01      0.8324368                                0.4249245D+02      1.3685050

LANGFR        X2  0.5455735D+00  0.1735009D+01      0.3144500                -0.1632009D-09  0.1129058D+04      0.5604298
                                 0.2414718D+00      2.2593672                                0.1498245D+04      0.5502486

UTIL3         X3  0.2283524D+00  0.4591090D+00      0.4973817                -0.2872684D-10  0.2856243D+05      0.3236397
                                 0.1683745D+00      1.3562172                                0.3403862D+05      0.3128239

CONSTANT      X0 -0.1962233D+00  0.5748298D+01     -0.0341359                -0.4390196D-10 -0.4057482D+05     -0.2747877
                                 0.3683147D+01     -0.0532760                               -0.3555586D+05     -0.2664371

VAR(W)            0.1641489D+00  0.1513436D+00      1.0846107                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.2750824D-01      5.9672610
 
RHO1      (E)     0.6695038D+00  0.1115325D+00      6.0027662                 0.2730363D-03
                                 0.1048463D+00      6.3855759
RHO2      (E)     0.2846650D+00  0.1056991D+00      2.6931640                -0.3163496D-03
                                 0.1003276D+00      2.8373538
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.5236453D+00      1.9096896      0.0000000  0.9428815D+01
                                 0.5089821D+00      1.9647056      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.8427741D+00      1.1865576      0.0000000  0.5465539D+01
                                 0.7939017D+00      1.2596019      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.2829163D-01  0.4149898D-01     -0.6817426    -24.7787189  0.1400563D-03
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.2986100D+00  0.1386292D+00      2.1540192     -5.0594675  0.3793036D-04
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.7215773D-01  0.8717030D+00     -0.0827779     -1.2299576 -0.1517174D-04
LAM(X3)   (E)     0.2330552D-01  0.2438282D+01      0.0095582     -0.4005666 -0.1106223D-04


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1387556D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6437
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6037

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9681
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9645

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0004
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1280730D+06

MEAN of residual W                  =  0.3419800D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1641489D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.7599017D+00   Upper Bound =  0.8282977D+00


CPU TIME:      4.44 sec
